Alan Greenspan: Gold und wirtschaftliche Freiheit
Der nachfolge Artikel wurde von Alan Greenspan geschrieben und erschien 1967 in Ayn Rands Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal. Leider war von alldem nichts mehr zu sehen/merken, als er 1987 (bis 2006) Fed Chairman wurde, schließlich ist Greenspan zu einem großen Teil verantwortlich für die jetzige Krise.
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.
In order to understand the source of their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand the specific role of gold in a free society.
Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.
The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.
What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.
In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value will shift to the most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.
Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of World War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold.
A free banking system based on gold is able to extend credit and thus to create bank notes (currency) and deposits, according to the production requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are induced, by payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a bank (against which they can draw checks). But since it is rarely the case that all depositors want to withdraw all their gold at the same time, the banker need keep only a fraction of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This enables the banker to loan out more than the amount of his gold deposits (which means that he holds claims to gold rather than gold as security of his deposits). But the amount of loans which he can afford to make is not arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his reserves and to the status of his investments.
When banks loan money to finance productive and profitable endeavors, the loans are paid off rapidly and bank credit continues to be generally available. But when the business ventures financed by bank credit are less profitable and slow to pay off, bankers soon find that their loans outstanding are excessive relative to their gold reserves, and they begin to curtail new lending, usually by charging higher interest rates. This tends to restrict the financing of new ventures and requires the existing borrowers to improve their profitability before they can obtain credit for further expansion. Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth. When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one – so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all countries. For example, if banks in one country extend credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a return to competitively higher interest rates again.
A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post-World War I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.
But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline – argued economic interventionists – why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely – it was claimed – there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks ("paper reserves") could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.
When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.
With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form – from a growing number of welfare-state advocates – was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.
Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which – through a complex series of steps – the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
(via Daily Paul)
Geldnachfrage und die Zeitstruktur von Produktion
The Demand for Money and the Time-Structure of Production
The classical economists rejected the notion that the supply of and demand for money had any systematic impact on aggregate wealth. According to Adam Smith, the true factors determining economic growth were the division of labor and capital accumulation — real, not monetary factors. Austrian economists have always cherished and held on to these central insights, yet they have nuanced them in several respects. Most notably, Menger and Böhm-Bawerk have introduced the time dimension into the theory of capital, showing among other things the classical wage fund theory to be inaccurate in important respects. Similarly, Mises stressed that money is not neutral. While the supply of money and the demand for money have no systematic impact on aggregate growth, these forces do affect the distribution and allocation of resources. They shape the type and relative quantities of goods being produced. In short, they determine the structure, though not the level of production.
The purpose of present paper is to analyze the impact of the demand for money on the pure rate of interest, and thus on the time structure of production. Conventional Austrian monetary theory holds that while the supply of money does have a systematic impact on the rate of interest, the demand for money does not. The latter is, so to say, "time-neutral." We will criticize this contention and proceed as follows: After a reminder of some basic concepts (section II), we will briefly restate the traditional Austrian analysis of the time dimension of the money relation (section III), and then offer a critique, stressing that the demand for money is not time neutral in the case of natural money, whereas it is in the case of fiat money (section IV). Finally we shall discuss some implications of our findings (section V).
Aufgrund Zeitmangels leider wieder nur der Verweis auf einen Artikel von Jörg Guido Hülsmann.
Papiergeld: Wie entsteht Geld?
Stellen wir uns einmal vor, das alle Menschen identisch sind und das jeder die exakt gleichen Ressourcen zum verarbeiten vorfindet. In solch einer Situation können wir davon ausgehen, dass jede Person die gleichen Produkte in gleicher Anzahl und Qualität herstellt und das die Produkte auch in gleicher Weise ge- beziehungsweise verbraucht werden. Offensichtlich gäbe es für ein Individuum nicht den geringsten Grund überhaupt über die Möglichkeit des Handelns nachzudenken, denn warum sollte man ein identisches Gut gegen an anderes identisches Gut eintauschen?
Wir stellen also fest, das Unterschiede existieren müssen, damit es zu Arbeitsteilung kommt. Sprich es muss Unterschiede zwischen Individuen, zur Verfügung stehenden Ressourcen oder beidem geben. Sobald dies der Fall ist - und nur wenn dies der Fall ist - könnte eine Person überhaupt auf die Idee kommen, ein selbst produziertes Gut A gegen ein, von einer anderen Person produziertes, Gut B einzutauschen.
Dennoch könnte man sich vorstellen, das es nicht zur Aufteilung von Arbeit kommen muss, wenn Unterschiede existieren. Man könnte trotzdem versuchen alles was man benötigt selbst herzustellen.
Soziologen und Psychologen versuchen das aufkommen von Arbeitsteilung mit einer uns zugrundeliegenden Sympathie für andere, oder einem "Instinkt zum Tauschhandel" zu erklären. Die einfachste Erklärung, da sie mit den wenigsten Annahmen auskommt, formulierte allerdings Ludwig von Mises. Selbst wenn wir annehmen das jeder jeden hasst, könnte man noch immer Erklären, wieso es zu Arbeitsteilung kommt (Nationalökonomie, 1940, S. 129).
Wenn und insoweit arbeitsteilig verrichtete Arbeit ergiebiger ist als Einzelarbeit und wenn und insoweit diese Tatsache von den Menschen erkannt wird, drängt das Handeln zur Vergesellschaftung und zwar zu fortschreitender Vergesellschaftung, nicht aus geheimnisvollem, unerklärbarem Trieb, sondern aus dem Wesen des Handelns selbst. Die Erfahrung lehrt uns, dass die Bedingung - höhere Ergiebigkeit der arbeitsteilig verrichteten Arbeit - gegeben ist, weil ihre Voraussetzungen - ungleiche Begabung der Menschen und ungleiche Eignung der verschiedenen Punkte der bewohnbaren Teile der Erde für die Erzeugung der verschiedenen Güter - gegeben sind. So vermögen wir das Werden und das Fortschreiten gesellschaftlicher Bindung zu begreifen.
Wir können sogar davon ausgehen, das es selbst dann zu Arbeitsteilung kommen würde, wenn Person A Person B in allen belangen überlegen wäre. Die einzige Annahme die es dazu braucht ist Eigennutz und die Tatsache, dass Zeit rar ist. Jeffrey Tucker erklärt dies in seinem Artikel "Cooperation: How a Free Market Benefits Everyone", in dem er sich unter anderem auf Mises und Murray Rothbard bezieht.
Nun befinden wir uns also in einer Tauschwirtschaft, in der Individuen teilweise für sich selbst produzieren und teilweise um ein produziertes Gut gegen ein anderes Gut einzutauschen. Man wird allerdings praktisch sofort feststellen, dass es in einer Tauschwirtschaft ein fundamentales Problem gibt: Damit es zum Tausch kommt, muss A das besitzen, was B will und B wiederum muss das haben, was A braucht. Ist nur eine dieser beiden Voraussetzungen nicht gegeben, kann es offensichtlich nicht zum Tausch kommen.
Wenn wir annehmen, das es eine Art "Gewissheit" für die Zukunft gibt - sprich jede Person kann die Wünsche jeder andere Person zu jedem Zeitpunkt perfekt vorhersagen - dann können wir davon ausgehen, dass zu jedem Zeitpunkt beide der oben genannten Voraussetzungen erfüllt sind. Wir leben allerdings in keiner Welt der "perfekten Gewissheit", sondern in einer Welt, die durch Ungewissheit gekennzeichnet ist. In einer Welt der Ungewissheit ist es durchaus möglich, dass die oben genannten Fälle niemals eintreten, was bedeutet das es für Person A unmöglich wäre, die zum Tausch produzierten Güter auch wirklich zu tauschen.
Von diesem Punkt ausgehend kann man beginnen zu erklären, wie es zur Entstehung von Geld kommt. Geld ist die Lösung des bereits oben genannten Problems: Was können wir tun, wenn wir für den Tausch produziert haben, durch unsere produzierten Güter aber nicht das bekommen können, was wir brauchen.
Alles was es in einer Tauschwirtschaft braucht, ist eine Person die erkennt, dass sie ein Gut C bekommt, indem sie das selbst produzierte Gut A zuerst gegen Gut B eintauscht, um dann schlussendlich B gegen C zu tauschen. B wird nun nicht mehr nur zum Eigenbedarf beziehungsweise zum direkten Tausch gebraucht, sondern auch zum indirekten Tausch. Dadurch steigt die Marktgängigkeit von B an. Das marktgängigste Gut, als das Gut, welches am Ende von allen als allgemein gebräuchliches Tauschmittel akzeptiert wird, ist das Geld. Hierbei ist anzumerken, das es nicht unbedingt ein einziges Gut geben muss, was am Ende zu Geld wird. Es ist durchaus vorstellbar, dass zwei oder mehr Güter als allgemein gebräuchliches Tauschmittel akzeptiert werden. Ein geschichtliches hierfür findet sich im Bimetallismus.
Ludwig von Mises erklärte dies, basierend auf Ideen Carl Mengers, wie folgt (Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufmittel, 1912, S. 7):
So sind aus einem Bedürfnis des Verkehres heraus eine Reihe von Waren allmählich allgemein gebräuchliche Tauschmittel geworden. Der Kreis dieser Waren, der ursprünglich ein weiter und von Land zu Land verschieden war, verengte sich immer mehr. Es mußte das naturgemäße Bestreben eines jeden einzelnen der am Tauschverkehre beteiligten Individuen sein, die Waren, die es zu veräußern wünschte, sobald ein direkter Tausch ausgeschlossen schien, nicht nur gegen absatzfähigere Güter überhaupt, sondern womöglich gegen die absatzfähigsten und unter diesen wieder gegen das absatzfähigste Gut zu vertauschen. Je großer die Marktgängigkeit des im indirekten Tausche zunächst erworbenen Gutes war, desto großer wurde die Aussicht, das angestrebte Endziel ohne weitere Umwege erreichen zu können. So mußte es denn geschehen, daß aus der Reihe der marktgängigeren Güter, welche als Tauschmittel verwendet wurden, allmählich die weniger marktgängigen ausgeschieden wurden, bis zuletzt nur mehr ein einziges Gut übrig blieb, welches allgemein als Tauschmittel gebraucht wurde: das Geld.
Wirtschaftstheorie kann nicht vorhersagen, welches Gut am Ende zu Geld wird, sie kann allerdings vorhersagen, welche Charakteristiken ein Gut haben oder nicht haben muss, um die wahrscheinlich das es zum allgemein gebräuchlichen Tauschmittel wird zu vergrößern beziehungsweise zu verkleinern. Das Gut, welches am Ende zu Geld wird, wird wahrscheinlich die folgenden Charakteristiken besitzen:
- Teilbarkeit
- leicht transportierbar
- leicht erkennbar
Diese Eigenschaften werden offensichtlich von manchen Gütern besser erfüllt, als von anderen. In manchen Lehrbüchern findet sich als Beispiel - für die Entstehung von Geld - ein Gefängnis in dem Zigaretten zum Gut mit der höchsten Marktgängigkeit werden. Für jeden sollten sofort erkennbar sein, dass Zigaretten die oben genannten Charakteristiken zu einem gewissen Grad erfüllen: Sie können aufgeteilt werden, sie sind leicht und sie sind leicht erkennbar.
Da Geld - beziehungsweise das Gut, welches zu Geld wird - entweder ein wertvolles Gebrauchs- oder Erzeugergut sein muss (aufgrund der hohen Marktgängigkeit), können wir umgekehrt sagen, dass billige oder wenig bis gar nicht wertvolle Güter nicht zu Geld werden können.
Nun stellt sich die Frage: Kann Papier zu Geld werden? Und die Antwort ist natürlich nein, Papier könnte vom freien Markt niemals zum allgemein gebräuchlichen Tauschmittel gemacht werden. Aber warum ist das so? Folgendes Beispiel: Stellen wir uns vor B besitzt etwas, was A gerne haben möchte. A besitzt aber nichts, was er gegen das Gut von B eintauschen könnte, also kommt er auf die großartige Idee ein Stück Papier zu nehmen, 10 Euro drauf zu schreiben und es B zum Tausch gegen sein Gut vorzuschlagen. Kommt es zum Tausch? Nein. Würde es zum Tausch kommen, wenn A zwei weitere Nullen auf das Papierstück schreibt? Nein.
Zu beginn muss Geld also ein Gut mit Wert und einer hohen Marktgängigkeit sein. Wie Papier zu Geld werden kann, werden wir in einem späteren Artikel noch sehen.
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